Spring will follow winter | BusinessMirror


Humans have been discovering how the world works for thousands of years. But now, at the pinnacle of human development, we think that we should measure our knowledge based on the newest invention. The light bulb, the internal combustion engine and the transistor changed life on earth. How could the ancients possibly be considered intelligent without 24/7 Internet access?

The quest for knowledge was always about trying to understand the order of an apparent uncontrolled universe. In other words, we have always been looking for patterns and cycles.

The Stonehenge was built about 5,000 years before the Internet came into existence. The Mayan Calendar was created 2,500 years ago. We can include the Fibonacci numbers, the Golden Ratio and the Saros periods, which all demonstrated definite patterns and cycles.

The Saros cycle/series—named by astronomer Edmond Halley in 1691—can predict solar and lunar eclipses and was known to the Chaldeans a thousand years before Christ. In 1503 Christopher Columbus was stranded in Jamaica. His sailors, following a Western tradition of stealing from the locals, had their food supply cut off. The story goes that Columbus convinced the indigenous Taíno to overlook the thievery by predicting a lunar eclipse, information found in the 16th century version of “Google”—his almanac.

Starting in early 2015  I wrote that the world was entering a transition phase that would lead to increasing political and economic turmoil. This is based on the cycle studies of Martin Armstrong. Elections in 2016 and again in 2017 show that this upheaval is increasing and will continue into 2018. The current period we are in is marked by a breakdown of the peoples’ trust in institutions. The US data is representative of what is happening around the world.

Trust in organized religion has fallen from 60 percent in 2001 to 41 percent today. The judicial system has suffered with the Supreme Court trust rating falling to 36 percent from 50 percent. Press and media are well trusted by only 21 percent from a previous 36 percent. The US Congress gains trust from only 9 percent. In 2001 58 percent trusted the US president. It reached a low of 29 percent in 2014 and has edged back up to 36 percent. Big business’ trust rating dropped to 18 percent from 29 percent, with banks down to 27 percent from 46 percent.

Interestingly, trust in the military has increased from 66 percent to 73 percent. Trust in the police has been steady at 55 percent. Also higher is trust in small business up to 68 percent from 57 percent in 2001.

Even as the names in politics changed, the trust ratings continued to fall as the cycle came closer to the transition phase. Cycles are a reality in every country. In the Philippines, we think only of the rainy and dry seasons, but we also have winter, spring, summer and autumn based on the earth cycle around the sun.

As demographer and author of The Fourth Turning, Neil Howe, recently said, “History is seasonal, and winter is coming. Trust in democracies, media and politicians is dropping. When was the last time we saw these changes? In the 1930s.”

But after winter comes spring. In the next 12 months, that is what we in the Philippines should be concentrating on to take advantage of the seasonal change. Every period of “winter” was followed by “spring”. After the Great Depression and World War II came an age of relative peace and great global prosperity. It is only a matter of time.


E-mail me at mangun@gmail.com. Visit my web site at www.mangunonmarkets.com. Follow me on Twitter @mangunonmarkets. PSE stock-market information and technical analysis tools provided by the COL Financial Group Inc.


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